A major new international analysis suggests that obesity rates may finally be slowing, stabilising, and in some countries even declining — challenging the long-standing narrative of an unstoppable “global obesity epidemic.”
The study, led by researchers from Imperial College London through the NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (NCD-RisC), analysed more than four decades of global health data from 200 countries and territories, covering the period from 1980 to 2024.
Published in the journal Nature, the findings were presented during the European Congress on Obesity (ECO 2026) in Istanbul and provide a more optimistic outlook than many previous global obesity reports.
A Shift in Global Trends
Researchers found that obesity growth has slowed or levelled off in most high-income countries, particularly in Europe. In some nations — including France, Italy, and Portugal — obesity rates may have even started to decline.
One of the most significant findings is that improvements often appeared first among children and adolescents, followed roughly a decade later by adults. Several European countries began seeing a slowdown in childhood obesity as early as the 1990s.
According to Professor Majid Ezzati of Imperial College London:
“This latest analysis suggests that the rate of growth in obesity is slowing and stabilising, and may even be reversing, in many countries. This offers a more optimistic picture that progress is being made.”
Major Differences Between Countries
Despite positive developments in many developed nations, the report highlights a growing divide globally.
Obesity rates continue to rise rapidly in many low- and middle-income countries, especially across Africa, Asia, Latin America, and Pacific island nations. Researchers warn that inequalities in nutrition, access to healthy foods, and healthcare infrastructure remain major challenges.
The study also showed substantial differences between countries:
- France maintained relatively low obesity prevalence and may now be seeing declines.
- Italy and Portugal showed signs of plateauing or reversing obesity trends.
- The United States experienced stabilisation among children, but obesity levels remain among the highest globally.
- Countries such as Brazil, India, and China continue to see accelerating obesity rates.
Why This Study Matters
Instead of focusing only on obesity prevalence, researchers analysed the velocity of obesity growth — measuring how quickly obesity rates change over time. This allowed them to better identify whether countries are improving, stabilising, or worsening.
The authors argue that understanding these changing trends can help governments develop stronger public health policies and improve access to healthier foods and preventive healthcare.
The report also notes that newer medications such as GLP-1 receptor agonists may influence future trends, although they likely do not yet explain the patterns observed in this analysis.
Read the Full Press Release
The complete official press release from Imperial College London can be read here:
